Business cycles in the Haitian economy

Kathleen Dorsainvil ()
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Kathleen Dorsainvil: Dorsainvil Consulting Group, Haiti

Journal of Developing Areas, 2014, vol. 48, issue 3, 65-75

Abstract: This paper has two objectives. The first one is to build an index of coincident indicators of economic activity n the Haitian economy during the identified cycles using Hardin and Pagan (2001) algorithm. The second objective is to enable policymakers to gauge with relative accuracy the probability that the Haitian economy be in expansion or recession during a specific quarter. To achieve these two objectives I use a probit analysis and a certain number of financial and fiscal indicators. The results appear promising for developing economies where data needed for policy guidance are often unavailable. Policymakers may find here an effective decision-making tool.

Keywords: Haitian Business Cycles; Principal Component; Forecasting Turning Points (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jda:journl:vol.48:year:2014:issue3:pp:65-75

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