Electoral outcomes versus voters’ preferences: On the different tales the data can tell

Salvatore Barbaro (), Anna-Sophie Kurella () and Maike Roth ()
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Anna-Sophie Kurella: University of Mannheim, Germany
Maike Roth: Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany

No 2412, Working Papers from Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz

Abstract: One of the primary goals of the social sciences is to understand the factors influencing fluctuations in support for political parties. However, the relationship between electoral outcomes and electorate preferences can be tenuous. The aggregation function’s impact on translating voters’ preferences into outcomes can vary significantly. Conversely, electoral outcomes may not accurately reflect how voters perceive winning or losing parties. Through an empirical case study, we examine short and long-term data. Our analysis reveals several key findings: Firstly, applying different electoral methods yields significantly divergent outcomes. Secondly, electoral trends do not necessarily align with voters’ perceptions of the respective parties over time. Lastly, plurality-based methods can result in seat share gains for parties even in the face of declining support.

Keywords: Elections; Voting Schemes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2024-06-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2412

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