Foresight in a research institution: a critical review of two exercises

Philippe Petithuguenin, Marie de Lattre-Gasquet and Jérôme Sainte-Beuve
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Philippe Petithuguenin: CIRAD-CP, Montpellier, France, Postal: CIRAD-CP, Montpellier, France
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet: CIRAD, Paris, France, Postal: CIRAD, Paris, France
Jérôme Sainte-Beuve: CIRAD-CP, Montpellier, France, Postal: CIRAD-CP, Montpellier, France

Journal of Forecasting, 2003, vol. 22, issue 2-3, 203-217

Abstract: Foresight is a powerful tool for imagining possible futures, for raising public awareness, for helping decision-making and addressing questions related to the relationship between science and society. In this article we make a critical analysis of two foresight exercises organized by a research institution. A precise description of the exercises conducted on the futures of the cocoa commodity chain and the hevea commodity chain helps to understand the possible processes of a foresight exercise, what foresight can achieve and what kinds of difficulties can occur. From these experiences, proposals are made to facilitate the development of strategic intelligence in a research institution and improve the linkages between foresight, evaluation and programme formulation. The role of foresight in transforming knowledge and in pushing a closed system into a political arena is also shown. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2003
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:203-217

DOI: 10.1002/for.852

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