Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Sinan Gönül, Dilek Önkal and Paul Goodwin
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Sinan Gönül: Department of Business Administration, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey, Postal: Department of Business Administration, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey
Dilek Önkal: Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey, Postal: Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey
Paul Goodwin: School of Management, University of Bath, UK, Postal: School of Management, University of Bath, UK

Journal of Forecasting, 2009, vol. 28, issue 1, 19-37

Abstract: A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:1:p:19-37

DOI: 10.1002/for.1082

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