Mortgage Terminations: The Role of Conditional Volatility

David M. Harrison (), Thomas G. Noordewier () and K. Ramagopal ()
Additional contact information
David M. Harrison: University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405-0157
Thomas G. Noordewier: University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405-0157
K. Ramagopal: University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405-0157

Journal of Real Estate Research, 2002, vol. 23, issue 1/2, 89-110

Abstract: This article is the winner of the Real Estate Finance manuscript prize (sponsored by Fannie Mae Foundation) presented at the 2001 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. Studies of mortgage termination decisions typically rely on a competing risks framework comparing defaults and prepayments. While useful tools have been developed to approximate the values of these competing default and prepayment options, the available metrics do not adequately account for the role of the conditional volatility of interest rates and housing prices in option valuation. Using a sample of 1,428 mortgage loan payment histories, this study finds that exponential GARCH estimates of the conditional volatility of housing prices and interest rates influence mortgage termination decisions in a predictable manner. Specifically, increased housing price volatility is shown to enhance default option values, while increased interest rate volatility is shown to enhance prepayment option values. Therefore, it would appear that conditional volatility represents a more refined input into the competing risks option framework.

JEL-codes: L85 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol23n0102/06.89_110.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jre:issued:v:23:n:1/2:2002:p:89-110

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Real Estate Research is currently edited by Dr. Ko Wang

More articles in Journal of Real Estate Research from American Real Estate Society American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster ().