Populism and the Re-birth of Manufacturing: New Trends or Empty Promises?

Christopher Ball and Federica Weßel
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Christopher Ball: Quinnipiac University
Federica Weßel: Friedrich Schiller University Jena

No 2026-005, Jena Economics Research Papers from Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena

Abstract: Populist political movements frequently campaign on promises to rebuild domestic manufacturing and reverse perceived losses from globalization. This paper evaluates whether populist governments succeed in improving manufacturing performance once global trends are taken into account. Using a panel of 86 countries from 1960 to 2019, we examine manufacturing output and employment—both in levels and relative to GDP—during periods of populist governance. To isolate country-specific effects from global structural change, outcomes are measured relative to peer groups defined by region, income level, economic size, population, and initial manufacturing structure. Two-way fixed effects estimates and dynamic event-study analyses based on the Sun and Abraham (2021) estimator reveal little evidence that populist regimes systematically increase manufacturing performance relative to comparable countries. Where statistically significant effects appear, they are short-lived and not part of sustained trends. The results suggest that populist policies do not meaningfully reverse long-run deindustrialization, though pre-treatment patterns in manufacturing employment may help explain the electoral appeal of re-industrialization rhetoric.

Keywords: Populism; Manufacturing, Industrial Policy, Event Studies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E65 L60 O14 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-005

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