Optimal Strategy in Blockchain Transaction Issuances with CIR Process

Bumho Son (), Seongwan Park (), Jaewook Lee () and Huisu Jang ()
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Bumho Son: Chung-Ang University
Seongwan Park: Seoul National University
Jaewook Lee: Seoul National University
Huisu Jang: Soongsil University

Computational Economics, 2025, vol. 66, issue 5, No 18, 4137-4159

Abstract: Abstract This study proposes a novel transaction submission timing strategy for Ethereum aimed at minimizing transaction fees and maximizing user utility under the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-1559 framework. Utilizing the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process, the research models the base fee, which fluctuates according to gas consumption in Ethereum blocks, to develop an optimal submission time for transaction issuers. Key findings reveal that the maximum priority fee is statistically independent of the base fee, allowing users to optimize their transaction timing without significant risk of higher fees. The geometric mean of gas consumption, modeled via a CIR process, effectively forecasts base fee changes, leading to measurable utility gains for transaction issuers. The study further explores the robustness of the model across various market conditions and transaction urgency levels, demonstrating that the proposed strategy yields the most substantial benefits in stable market environments and for transactions with moderate urgency. These insights contribute to improving user satisfaction and enhancing network efficiency within Ethereum’s transaction fee mechanism.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process; Transaction fee; Blockchain; Ethereum; EIP-1559; Gas consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10614-024-10839-3

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