Were COVID-19 lockdowns worth it? A meta-analysis

Jonas Herby (), Lars Jonung () and Steve H. Hanke
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Lars Jonung: Lund University
Steve H. Hanke: The Johns Hopkins University

Public Choice, 2025, vol. 203, issue 3, No 1, 337-367

Abstract: Abstract Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented use of mandatory lockdowns—defined as the imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention—took place. We conduct a meta-analysis to determine the effect of these lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality. Our meta-analysis finds that lockdowns in the spring of 2020 had a relatively small effect on COVID-19 mortality and is consistent with the view that voluntary changes in behavior, such as social distancing, played an important role in mitigating the pandemic. Given the enormous economic costs associated with lockdowns and our findings of the relatively small health benefits, the efficacy of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic is called into question.

Keywords: COVID-19; Restrictions; Lockdown; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Mortality; Meta-analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D19 I18 I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01216-7

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