Protecting Postville? The impact of deportation and immigration on crime

Joshua K. Bedi (), Shaomeng Jia () and Claudia Williamson Kramer ()
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Joshua K. Bedi: University of Wisconsin - Superior
Shaomeng Jia: University of Louisiana Monroe
Claudia Williamson Kramer: University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Public Choice, 2025, vol. 203, issue 3, No 2, 369-396

Abstract: Abstract A common perception is that the deportation of immigrants results in less crime and increased immigration raises crime. Using a 2008 worksite raid in Postville, Iowa and a 2006 worksite raid in Marshalltown, Iowa as natural experiments, we use a synthetic control method to study how deportation impacts local crime. Because the Postville worksite raid was followed by increases in immigrant workers in 2009, we also analyze how increased immigration impacts crime. Our analysis of both deportations suggests the removal of immigrants increased violent crime and decreased property crime, at least in the short term. Estimated effects of the 2009 inflow of immigrants suggest that new arrivals were accompanied by lower crime rates. Sensitivity analysis, however, suggests neither deportation nor increased immigration were the root causes of documented changes in crime. Rather, other latent factors influenced crime rates in Postville, Marshalltown, and other areas, irrespective of immigrant deportation or new immigrants. Our results imply major changes in immigration do not impact crime.

Keywords: Immigration; Deportation; Crime; Synthetic control method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H7 J1 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01232-7

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