Effectiveness of vaccination, travel load, and facemask use control strategies for controlling COVID Delta variant: the case of Sydney Metropolitan Area

Maliheh Tabasi (), Ali Najmi (), Eric J. Miller (), C. Raina MacIntyre () and Taha H. Rashidi ()
Additional contact information
Maliheh Tabasi: The University of New South Wales
Ali Najmi: The University of New South Wales
Eric J. Miller: University of Toronto
C. Raina MacIntyre: Arizona State University College of Health Solutions
Taha H. Rashidi: The University of New South Wales

Transportation, 2025, vol. 52, issue 4, No 19, 1709-1743

Abstract: Abstract The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, specifically identified as B.1.617.2, is responsible for the severe outbreaks witnessed globally, including in various countries and cities, with Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (Sydney GMA) being no exception. According to scientific studies, the Delta strain exhibits increased contagion and leads to a higher incidence of vaccine breakthrough cases, posing significant challenges to pandemic control efforts. In this study, we explore the efficacy of three fundamental control strategies—namely, vaccination rates, adherence to facemask usage, and the management of travel loads—in mitigating the spread of the disease and, consequently, eliminating the Delta variant pandemic in Sydney GMA. We employ an agent-based disease spread model to thoroughly investigate these strategies. Moreover, factorial MANOVA is utilised to assess the significance of variations in the impact of diverse compliance levels with the aforementioned control strategies on various attributes of the pandemic. As complete lockdowns and stringent travel regulations have the potential to induce physical and mental distress in individuals and economic crises for countries, our study examines the interactive effects of implementing control strategies to mitigate the necessity for a full lockdown. The simulation results suggest that suppressing a pandemic with similar characteristics to Delta variant of COVID is feasible with a vaccination rate of 80% or higher, as long as travel load and activity participation are maintained at pre-COVID levels. Alternatively, a more realistic and attainable combination of control measures—a vaccination rate of 60%, a facemask usage level of 60%, and a 50% compliance level for social distancing—demonstrates comparable efficacy, leading to effective pandemic control. Notably, the vaccination rate emerges as a more potent control strategy compared to others in the elimination of the disease within society.

Keywords: Delta pandemic; Vaccination rate; Disease spread agent-based model; Control strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-024-10471-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:transp:v:52:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11116-024-10471-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11116/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10471-y

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation is currently edited by Kay W. Axhausen

More articles in Transportation from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().