Catching a floating treasure

Eva Koeberl and Christian Mueller

No 12-297, KOF Working papers from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Abstract: Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.

Keywords: Forecasting; GDP revisions; Survey data; Experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2012-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-006959225 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-297

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in KOF Working papers from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().