Colombia’s stock market predictability

Jose Lopez

Lecturas de Economía, 2019, issue 91, 117-150

Abstract: : This paper studies historical stock market returns in Colombia and their medium- and long-term predictability with the purpose of examining whether there is a constant or time-varying risk premium and its relationship with other economic variables. With this goal in mind, the paper presents a historical price index, returns and the aggregate dividend yield of Colombia’s stock market for the 1995-2017 period, using information for the whole universe of issuers. Most of the variation in the dividend yield is explained by expected returns, which implies that the stock market has medium- and long-term cycles and the risk premium is time varying. The predictive power of the model increases if extended to include information on housing finance, the real exchange rate and returns of the S&P 500 index, suggesting that credit frictions and small open economy considerations could play a role when modelling risk premium in Colombia’s stock market.

Keywords: predictability; risk premium; dividend yield; Colombia’s stock market; expected returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F23 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.p ... view/339174/20794117 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lde:journl:y:2019:i:91:p:117-150

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Lecturas de Economía, Departamento de Economía, Calle 67, 53-108, Medellin 050010, Colombia.

DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n91a04

Access Statistics for this article

Lecturas de Economía is currently edited by Carlos Andrés Vasco Correa

More articles in Lecturas de Economía from Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Carlos Andrés Vasco Correa ().