Perkiraan Kebutuhan Investasi Sektor Pertanian Dalam Repelita VII

Pantjar Simatupang, Nizwar Syafa'at and Saktyanu K. D.
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Pantjar Simatupang: Researcher, Center for Agricultural-Social and Economic Research, Bogor
Nizwar Syafa'at: Researcher, Center for Agricultural-Social and Economic Research, Bogor
Saktyanu K. D.: Researcher, Center for Agricultural-Social and Economic Research, Bogor

Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 1999, vol. 47, 75-102

Abstract: A sistematic information on the amount and the source of investment in agriculture sector is needed, especially in relation to the purpose of formulating the Repelita VII of Agricultural Sector. The main objective of this paptvr is to calculate total value of investment requirement in agriculture and to identify the sources and the value of each source of its funding. The result of three appIoach of this study are demand driven predicts that the agricultural-sector real GDP Growth in Repelita VII will be 9,5 %/year, this historic trend showed 4,05 %/year, and government-targeted have ranges from 3,58-3,71 %/year. Based on the demand driven approach, the total agricultural sector investment requirement in Repelita VII is Rp 41,2 billion, the historical trend approach is Rp 24,8 billion and the government-targeted is Rp 19,8 billion. Output projection based on the demand driven approach is much greater than the projection obtained from the other two approaches. The last two approaches are basically supply side approach. The fundings then can be interpreted that in Repelita VII demand for agricultural output will be far higher than production capacity. Accordingly, if there are no systematic anticipation to this situation, import of agricultural products will increase very sharply. This, of course, will lead to a very strong balance of payment deficit pressure. The government is, therefore, required to set a new much higher agricultural sector GDP targets than presently set for Repelita VII.

Date: 1999
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