Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97

Masdjidin Siregar
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Masdjidin Siregar: Researcher, Center for Agricultural-Social and Economic Research, Bogor

Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 1999, vol. 47, 313-330

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze the causal relationship between export and economic growth in Indonesia for the period of 1971-97. The method used in this study is almost similar to previous studies carried out by Yung and Marshall (1985) and Dodaro (1993). It is concluded from the present study that there is no causal relationship between export and economic growth, at least in the period under study. Nonetheless, combining this conclusion with those of previous studies, one may infer that export does affect economic growth at least for the first fifteen years of development in Indonesia (1971-85). Such effects, however, would be getting weaker and weaker afterward. Since the current economic crisis could be considered as the starting point for another new economic development, export promotion seems to be a reasonable policy. Under the current exchange rate regime, exports of low-import content commodities, including agricultural commodities, have to be promoted.

Date: 1999
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lpe:efijnl:199913

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