The 2015/2016 New Year’s Eve Cologne Event and Anti-refugee Crimes in Germany

Mohamad Alhussein Saoud ()
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Mohamad Alhussein Saoud: Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg

No 25001, FEMM Working Papers from Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management

Abstract: During New Year's Eve 2015/2016, the German city of Cologne witnessed mass sexual assaults and thefts by perpetrators described as having an Arab-African appearance. This paper studies whether the event in Cologne led to a backlash in crimes against refugees in Germany. Difference-in-differences regressions reveal a significant jump in anti-refugee crimes immediately after the event. This rise is driven by assaults and miscellaneous crimes and is more pronounced in North Rhine-Westphalia (where Cologne is located), in wealthier counties, in counties with a higher share of refugees, and in the counties that had a refugee reception center. The immediate rise in anti-refugee crimes is also higher in counties where a higher share of German suspects has been involved in crimes against foreign victims. Regarding longer-term repercussions, I find evidence for an anniversary effect a year later, i.e., a rise in anti-refugee crimes after the next New Year’s Eve.

Keywords: Refugees; hate crimes; immigration; anniversary effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J15 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2025-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-law and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mag:wpaper:25001

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