Modelling New Zealand COVID-19 Infection Rate, and the Efficacy of Social Distancing Policy

Weshah Razzak

No 2004, Discussion Papers from School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand

Abstract: We fit the Gompertz curve to the New Zealand actual COVID 19 total infection cases from Feb 28, 2020 to Mar 27, 2020 then make projections under two scenarios. The first scenario is an effective lockdown of the country and a second scenario of a less effective lockdown scenario. The difference between the two scenarios is that the growth rate of infections is reduced faster and sooner under strict social distancing policy. We show that the Gompertz curve fits the data very well, and the projections of the two scenarios differ significantly. Social distancing by enforced lockdown reduces the infection rate significantly.

Keywords: Gompertz curve; COVID 19; Social Distancing; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C90 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2020
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