The Long-Run Political Consequences of Economic Downturns: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis Across European Cohorts

Despina Gavresi (), Anastasia Litina () and Ioannis Patios ()
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Despina Gavresi: DEM, University of Luxembourg
Anastasia Litina: Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, https://www.anastasialitina.com/
Ioannis Patios: University of Macedonia

Discussion Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Macedonia

Abstract: This paper examines how exposure to a wide range of macroeconomic downturns shapes individual attitudes to politics and support for variety of populist attitudes in Europe. We try to capture the long-run and the contemporaneous exposure to crises. We first focus on economic downturns experienced during the impressionable years between ages 18 and 25. We use repeated cross-sectional data from the Eurobarometer surveys and exploit cross-country and cohort variation in exposure to recessions. Our baseline analysis relies on fixed-effects regressions controlling for individual characteristics and contemporaneous economic conditions. We then attempt to address identification concerns. To this end we implement a difference-in-differences design that compares cohorts differentially exposed to downturns within the same country. We find that individuals exposed to macroeconomic downturns in early adulthood are more likely to support populist parties and exhibit lower trust in national and European political institutions later in life.

Keywords: Populism; Political attitudes; Institutional trust; OLS, Difference-in-differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06, Revised 2025-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol and nep-soc
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