ETF Settlement Clocks in Cryptocurrency Markets

Daniel Pastorek and Peter Albrecht ()

No 2026-109, MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics from Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics

Abstract: We study how post-trade settlement frictions introduced by spot ETFs reshape cryptocurrency market dynamics. Unlike crypto markets with near-instant delivery, crypto ETF trading is governed by an equity-style clearing and settlement clock, effectively importing a second timing regime into cryptocurrency markets. Using daily ETF failures-to-deliver (FTDs) data, securities-lending conditions, and close-aligned spot prices from ETF inception until 2025, we show that FTDs act as an intertemporal liquidity buffer. Local projections indicate that unexpected increases in FTD intensity do not raise contemporaneous spot volatility on the trade date. Instead, volatility materializes around the regulatory settlement date and spills over into the next session to some extent. In a competing-shocks framework, this response centered around the settlement date remains distinct from standard volatility shocks, which load immediately and mean-revert. Panel regressions further show that FTDs arise systematically when lending constraints bind. Finally, higher FTDs coincide with larger ETF spot tracking errors, consistent with temporary impairments in arbitrage. Overall, spot crypto ETFs import traditional settlement frictions into markets, where these frictions did not occur previously. It reallocates volatility over time and intermittently weakens price parity.

Keywords: Bitcoin; Ethereum; ETFs; Volatility; Market dynamics; FTDs; Settlement frictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G11 G12 G14 G23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2026-02
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