Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in "Arab Spring" Egypt

May Elsayyad and Shima’a Hanafy

Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance

Abstract: This paper empirically studies the voting outcomes of Egypt’s first parliamentary elections after the Arab Spring. In light of the strong Islamist success in the polls, we explore the main determinants of Islamist vs. secular voting. We identify three dimensions that affect voting outcomes at the constituency level: the socio-economic profile, the economic structure and the electoral institutional framework. Our results show that education is negatively associated with Islamist voting. Interestingly, we find significant evidence which suggests that higher poverty levels are associated with a lower vote share for Islamist parties. Later voting stages in the sequential voting setup do not exhibit a bandwagon effect.

Keywords: Voting Outcomes; Arab Spring; Political Islam; Sequential Voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D78 O53 P26 Z12 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2013-02
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