The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic

Veronika Svatošová and Josef Smolík
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Veronika Svatošová: Faculty of Regional Development and International Studies, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Josef Smolík: Faculty of Regional Development and International Studies, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 2015, vol. 63, issue 5, 1749-1767

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.

Keywords: social policy; scenario method; social policy model; method of scoring; intuitive method of estimate trends; explorative scenario; scenario of positive development; scenario of negative development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2015063051749

DOI: 10.11118/actaun201563051749

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