The Probability of Arrest for Drunk Driving: An Empirical Investigation of a Predator-Prey Model

Bulent Uyar, Bryce Kanago and Sam Mazuk
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Bulent Uyar: University of Northern Iowa
Bryce Kanago: University of Northern Iowa
Sam Mazuk: University of Northern Iowa

Journal of Economic Insight, 2019, vol. 45, issue 2, 37-68

Abstract: We measure the probability of arrest for drunk driving as the number of arrests in Iowa counties divided by the number of incidents imputed from CDC survey data. Both the number of officers per-capita and their allocation are statistically significant determinants of the probability of arrest, but their elasticities are small. Our rough imputation indicates a comparatively small benefit from hiring an additional officer. This may help explain why arrest rates are so low and suggests that policies that reduce excessive drinking, raise the return to police efforts, and reduce recidivism may be more effective than simply hiring additional officers.

JEL-codes: H12 K42 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mve:journl:v:45:y:2019:i:2:p:37-68

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