Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

Tse Yang Lim, Erin J. Stringfellow, Celia A. Stafford, Catherine DiGennaro, Jack B. Homer, Wayne Wakeland, Sara L. Eggers, Reza Kazemi, Lukas Glos, Emily G. Ewing, Calvin B. Bannister, Keith Humphreys, Douglas C. Throckmorton and Mohammad S. Jalali
Additional contact information
Tse Yang Lim: a Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;; b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Erin J. Stringfellow: c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;
Celia A. Stafford: c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;; d Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02163;
Catherine DiGennaro: c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;
Jack B. Homer: a Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;; e Homer Consulting, Barrytown, NY 12507;
Wayne Wakeland: f Systems Science Program, Portland State University, Portland, OR 97201;
Sara L. Eggers: b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Reza Kazemi: b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Lukas Glos: b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Emily G. Ewing: b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Calvin B. Bannister: b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Keith Humphreys: g Veterans Affairs Health Services Research Center, Palo Alto, CA 94304;; h Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
Douglas C. Throckmorton: b Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, US Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993;
Mohammad S. Jalali: a Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;; c Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115;

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022, vol. 119, issue 23, e2115714119

Abstract: The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.

Keywords: prescription opioids; heroin; fentanyl; overdose mortality; simulation modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.pnas.org/content/119/23/e2115714119.full (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:119:y:2022:p:e2115714119

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Bibliographic data for series maintained by PNAS Product Team ().