A spatiotemporal decay model of human mobility when facing large-scale crises

Weiyu Li, Qi Wang, Yuanyuan Liu, Mario L. Small and Jianxi Gao
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Weiyu Li: a School of Mathematical Sciences, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China;
Qi Wang: b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115;
Yuanyuan Liu: c Lally School of Management, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180;
Mario L. Small: d Department of Sociology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027;
Jianxi Gao: e Department of Computer Science and NEST Center, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022, vol. 119, issue 33, e2203042119

Abstract: Following large-scale extreme events—such as hurricanes, wildfires, and pandemics—changes in human movement patterns can vary dramatically from place to place and in the weeks and months following the event. Identifying patterns in spite of such variations across space and over time can help societies mount more effective responses. Our model uncovers that, across multiple types of events and despite their diversity and complexity, such changes follow a predictable hyperbolic pattern. The model can help understand and forecast movement patterns in future extreme events. It also uncovers hidden disparities in behavioral changes due to income inequality post large-scale crises.

Keywords: spatiotemporal decay; commitment hyperbolic model; human mobility; extreme events; social disparities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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