The political fallout of air pollution

Luna Bellani, Stefano Ceolotto, Benjamin Elsner and Nico Pestel ()
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Stefano Ceolotto: d Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (RAAS) , Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Edificio Porta dell’Innovazione - Piano 2 , Venezia Marghera 30175 , Italy
Benjamin Elsner: f Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration , University College London , London WC1H 0AX , United Kingdom
Nico Pestel: h CESifo Research Network , Munich 81679 , Germany

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2024, vol. 121, issue 18, e2314428121

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of air pollution on voting outcomes. We use data from 60 federal and state elections in Germany from 2000 to 2018 and exploit plausibly exogenous fluctuations in ambient air pollution within counties across election dates. Higher air pollution on election day shifts votes away from incumbent parties and toward opposition parties. An increase in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) by 10 μ g/m 3 —around two within-county SDs—reduces the vote share of incumbent parties by two percentage points, which is equivalent to 4% of the mean vote share. We generalize these findings by documenting similar effects with data from a weekly opinion poll and a large-scale panel survey. We provide further evidence that poor air quality leads to more negative emotions such as anger, worry, and unhappiness, which, in turn, may reduce the support for the political status quo. Overall, these results suggest that poor air quality affects decision-making in the population at large, including consequential political decisions.

Keywords: air pollution; voting; decision-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:121:y:2024:p:e2314428121

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