Critical fragility in sociotechnical systems

José Moran, Frank P. Pijpers, Utz Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud () and Debabrata Panja ()
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José Moran: c Complexity Science Hub , Vienna A-1080 , Austria
Frank P. Pijpers: e Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam 1098 XG , The Netherlands
Utz Weitzel: h Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam , Amsterdam 1082 MS , The Netherlands
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: j Académie des Sciences , Paris 75006 , France
Debabrata Panja: l Centre for Complex Systems Studies , Utrecht University, Minnaertgebouw , Utrecht 3584 CE , The Netherlands

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025, vol. 122, issue 9, e2415139122

Abstract:

Sociotechnical systems, where technological and human elements interact in a goal-oriented manner, provide important functional support to our societies. Here, we draw attention to the underappreciated concept of timeliness—i.e., system elements being available at the right place at the right time—that has been ubiquitously and integrally adopted as a quality standard in the modus operandi of sociotechnical systems. We point out that a variety of incentives, often reinforced by competitive pressures, prompt system operators to myopically optimize for efficiencies, running the risk of inadvertently taking timeliness to the limit of its operational performance, correspondingly making the system critically fragile to perturbations by pushing the entire system toward the proverbial “edge of a cliff.†Invoking a stylized model for operational delays, we identify the limiting operational performance of timeliness, as a true critical point, where the smallest of perturbations can lead to a systemic collapse. Specifically for firm-to-firm production networks, we suggest that the proximity to critical fragility is an important ingredient for understanding the fundamental “excess volatility puzzle†in economics. Further, in generality for optimizing sociotechnical systems, we propose that critical fragility is a crucial aspect in managing the trade-off between efficiency and robustness.

Keywords: sociotechnical systems; complex systems; fragility; criticality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:122:y:2025:p:e2415139122

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