Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Piers M. Forster (), Harriet I. Forster, Mat J. Evans, Matthew J. Gidden, Chris D. Jones, Christoph A. Keller, Robin D. Lamboll, Corinne Le Quéré, Joeri Rogelj, Deborah Rosen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Thomas B. Richardson, Christopher J. Smith and Steven T. Turnock
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Piers M. Forster: University of Leeds
Harriet I. Forster: Queen Margaret’s School, Escrick
Mat J. Evans: University of York
Matthew J. Gidden: Climate Analytics
Chris D. Jones: Met Office Hadley Centre
Christoph A. Keller: Goddard Space Flight Center
Robin D. Lamboll: Imperial College London
Corinne Le Quéré: University of East Anglia
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Deborah Rosen: University of Leeds
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Climate Analytics
Thomas B. Richardson: University of Leeds
Christopher J. Smith: University of Leeds
Steven T. Turnock: University of Leeds

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 10, 913-919

Abstract: Abstract The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0

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