A recent decline in North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation

Samuel W. Stevens (), Rodney J. Johnson, Guillaume Maze and Nicholas R. Bates
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Samuel W. Stevens: University of British Columbia
Rodney J. Johnson: Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences
Guillaume Maze: IFREMER
Nicholas R. Bates: Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 4, 335-341

Abstract: Abstract As a manifestation of mixing dynamics in the upper ocean, interannual and decadal variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) properties in the North Atlantic Ocean provides a valuable insight into ocean–atmosphere interaction in a changing climate. Here, we use hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study and Hydrostation S sites near Bermuda, as well as various ocean reanalysis products, to evaluate the modern variability of STMW properties. Our study finds an 86–93% loss of STMW thickness at these sites between 2010 and 2018 and a comparable loss throughout the western subtropical gyre, culminating in the weakest STMW pentad on record. We correlate this decline with a reduction in the annual outcropping volume and northward excursions of the formation region, suggesting a gyre-wide signal of weakening STMW generation. The outcropping volume of STMW is anti-correlated with surface ocean heat content, foreshadowing future STMW loss in the face of continued warming.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0722-3

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