Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation

Guoxiong Zheng, Simon Keith Allen, Anming Bao (), Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas, Matthias Huss, Guoqing Zhang, Junli Li, Ye Yuan, Liangliang Jiang, Tao Yu, Wenfeng Chen and Markus Stoffel ()
Additional contact information
Guoxiong Zheng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Simon Keith Allen: University of Geneva
Anming Bao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas: University of Geneva
Matthias Huss: ETH Zurich
Guoqing Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Junli Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ye Yuan: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Liangliang Jiang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tao Yu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenfeng Chen: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Markus Stoffel: University of Geneva

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 5, 411-417

Abstract: Abstract Warming on Earth’s Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3

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