Future high-resolution El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics

Christian Wengel (), Sun-Seon Lee, Malte F. Stuecker, Axel Timmermann (), Jung-Eun Chu and Fabian Schloesser
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Christian Wengel: Institute for Basic Science
Sun-Seon Lee: Institute for Basic Science
Malte F. Stuecker: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Axel Timmermann: Institute for Basic Science
Jung-Eun Chu: Institute for Basic Science
Fabian Schloesser: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 9, 758-765

Abstract: Abstract The current generation of climate models does not properly resolve oceanic mesoscale processes in tropical oceans, such as tropical instability waves. The associated deficit in explicit vertical and lateral heat exchange can further contribute to large-scale equatorial temperature biases, which in turn impact the representation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming. Here, using a mesoscale-resolving global climate model with an improved representation of tropical climate, we show that a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 causes a robust weakening of future simulated ENSO sea surface temperature variability. This sensitivity is caused mainly by stronger latent heat flux damping and weaker advective feedbacks. Stratification-induced weakening of tropical instability wave activity and the corresponding growth of ENSO instability partly offset the effect of other negative dynamical feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that previous lower-resolution greenhouse warming projections did not adequately simulate important ENSO-relevant ocean mesoscale processes.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01132-4

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