Climate warming may increase the frequency of cold-adapted haplotypes in alpine plants

Johannes Wessely (), Andreas Gattringer, Frédéric Guillaume, Karl Hülber, Günther Klonner, Dietmar Moser and Stefan Dullinger
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Johannes Wessely: University of Vienna
Andreas Gattringer: University of Vienna
Frédéric Guillaume: University of Helsinki
Karl Hülber: University of Vienna
Günther Klonner: University of Vienna
Dietmar Moser: University of Vienna
Stefan Dullinger: University of Vienna

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 1, 77-82

Abstract: Abstract Modelling of climate-driven range shifts commonly treats species as ecologically homogeneous units. However, many species show intraspecific variation of climatic niches and theory predicts that such variation may lead to counterintuitive eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here, we incorporate assumed intraspecific niche variation into a dynamic range model and explore possible consequences for six high-mountain plant species of the European Alps under scenarios of twenty-first century climate warming. At the species level, the results indicate massive range loss independent of intraspecific variation. At the intraspecific level, the model predicts a decrease in the frequency of warm-adapted haplotypes in five species. The latter effect is probably driven by a combination of leading-edge colonization and priority effects within the species’ elevational range and was weakest when leading-edge expansion was constrained by mountain topography The resulting maladaptation may additionally increase the risk that alpine plants face from shrinkage of their ranges in a warming climate.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01255-8

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