Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability

Eui-Seok Chung, Seong-Joong Kim (), Axel Timmermann, Kyung-Ja Ha, Sang-Ki Lee, Malte F. Stuecker, Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee and Lei Huang
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Eui-Seok Chung: Korea Polar Research Institute
Seong-Joong Kim: Korea Polar Research Institute
Axel Timmermann: Institute for Basic Science
Kyung-Ja Ha: Institute for Basic Science
Sang-Ki Lee: NOAA
Malte F. Stuecker: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Keith B. Rodgers: Institute for Basic Science
Sun-Seon Lee: Institute for Basic Science
Lei Huang: Institute for Basic Science

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 5, 461-468

Abstract: Abstract A variety of hypotheses, involving sub-ice-shelf melting, stratospheric ozone depletion and tropical teleconnections, have been proposed to explain the observed Antarctic sea-ice expansion over the period of continuous satellite monitoring and corresponding model–observation discrepancy, but the issue remains unresolved. Here, by comparing multiple large ensembles of model simulations with available observations, we show that Antarctic sea ice has expanded due to ocean surface cooling associated with multidecadal variability in the Southern Ocean that temporarily outweighs the opposing forced response. In both observations and model simulations, Southern Ocean multidecadal variability is closely linked to internal variability in the tropics, especially in the Pacific, via atmospheric teleconnections. The linkages are, however, distinctly weaker in simulations than in observations, accompanied by a marked model–observation mismatch in global warming resulting from potential model bias in the forced response and observed tropical variability. Thus, the forced response dominates in simulations, resulting in apparent model–observation discrepancy.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01339-z

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