Soil quality both increases crop production and improves resilience to climate change

Lei Qiao, Xuhui Wang, Pete Smith, Jinlong Fan, Yuelai Lu, Bridget Emmett, Rong Li, Stephen Dorling, Haiqing Chen, Shaogui Liu, Tim G. Benton, Yaojun Wang, Yuqing Ma, Rongfeng Jiang, Fusuo Zhang, Shilong Piao, Christoph Mϋller, Huaqing Yang, Yanan Hao, Wangmei Li and Mingsheng Fan ()
Additional contact information
Lei Qiao: China Agricultural University
Xuhui Wang: Peking University
Pete Smith: University of Aberdeen
Jinlong Fan: China Meteorological Administration
Yuelai Lu: University of East Anglia
Bridget Emmett: Environment Centre Wales
Rong Li: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
Stephen Dorling: University of East Anglia
Haiqing Chen: China Agricultural University
Shaogui Liu: Yangzhou Station of Farmland Quality Protection
Tim G. Benton: Chatham House
Yaojun Wang: China Agricultural University
Yuqing Ma: China Agricultural University
Rongfeng Jiang: China Agricultural University
Fusuo Zhang: China Agricultural University
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Christoph Mϋller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Huaqing Yang: China Agricultural University
Yanan Hao: China Agricultural University
Wangmei Li: China Agricultural University
Mingsheng Fan: China Agricultural University

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 6, 574-580

Abstract: Abstract Interactions between soil quality and climate change may influence the capacity of croplands to produce sufficient food. Here, we address this issue by using a new dataset of soil, climate and associated yield observations for 12,115 site-years representing 90% of total cereal production in China. Across crops and environmental conditions, we show that high-quality soils reduced the sensitivity of crop yield to climate variability leading to both higher mean crop yield (10.3 ± 6.7%) and higher yield stability (decreasing variability by 15.6 ± 14.4%). High-quality soils improve the outcome for yields under climate change by 1.7% (0.5–4.0%), compared to low-quality soils. Climate-driven yield change could result in reductions of national cereal production of 11.4 Mt annually under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 by 2080–2099. While this production reduction was exacerbated by 14% due to soil degradation, it can be reduced by 21% through soil improvement. This study emphasizes the vital role of soil quality in agriculture under climate change.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01376-8

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