Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability

Guojian Wang (), Wenju Cai (), Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, John C. Fyfe, Sang-Wook Yeh, Benjamin Ng, Kai Yang and Michael J. McPhaden
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Guojian Wang: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Wenju Cai: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Agus Santoso: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
John C. Fyfe: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Sang-Wook Yeh: Hanyang University
Benjamin Ng: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Kai Yang: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Michael J. McPhaden: NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 7, 649-654

Abstract: Abstract The Southern Ocean is a primary heat sink that buffers atmospheric warming and has warmed substantially, accounting for an outsized portion of global warming-induced excess heat in the climate system. However, its projected warming is highly uncertain and varies substantially across climate models. Here, using outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six models, we show that Southern Ocean warming during the twenty-first century is linked to the change in amplitude of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Models simulating a larger increase in ENSO amplitude systematically produce a slower Southern Ocean warming; conversely, a smaller increase in ENSO amplitude sees a stronger warming. The asymmetry in amplitude and teleconnection between El Niño and La Niña produce cumulative surface wind anomalies over the southern high latitudes, impacting Southern Ocean heat uptake. The magnitude of inter-model ENSO variations accounts for about 50% of the uncertainty in the projected Southern Ocean warming.

Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01398-2

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