Cost-effective adaptation strategies to rising river flood risk in Europe

Francesco Dottori (), Lorenzo Mentaschi, Alessandra Bianchi, Lorenzo Alfieri and Luc Feyen ()
Additional contact information
Francesco Dottori: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Lorenzo Mentaschi: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Alessandra Bianchi: FINCONS SPA
Lorenzo Alfieri: CIMA Research Foundation
Luc Feyen: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 196-202

Abstract: Abstract River flood risk in Europe could rise to unprecedented levels due to global warming and continued development in flood-prone areas. Here, we appraise the potential of four key adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk across Europe based on flood risk modelling and cost–benefit analysis. We find that reducing flood peaks using detention areas is economically the most attractive option. In a scenario without climate mitigation (3 °C global warming), they can lower projected flood losses in Europe by 2100 from €44(30–61) billion to €8.1(5.5–10.7) billion per year and lower population exposed by 84% (75–90%) or achieve a risk level comparable to today. The economic investment required over 2020–2100 would provide a return of €4(3.5–6.3) for each €1 invested. The risk reduction potential of strengthening of dykes is somewhat lower, at 70% (59–83%) for a comparable annual investment. Implementing building-based flood proofing and relocation measures is less cost-effective but can reduce impacts in localized areas.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01540-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01540-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01540-0

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().