Geostrophic flows control future changes of oceanic eastern boundary upwelling

Zhao Jing, Shengpeng Wang, Lixin Wu (), Hong Wang, Shenghui Zhou, Bingrong Sun, Zhaohui Chen, Xiaohui Ma, Bolan Gan and Haiyuan Yang
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Zhao Jing: Ocean University of China
Shengpeng Wang: Ocean University of China
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China
Hong Wang: Ocean University of China
Shenghui Zhou: Laoshan Laboratory
Bingrong Sun: Ocean University of China
Zhaohui Chen: Ocean University of China
Xiaohui Ma: Ocean University of China
Bolan Gan: Ocean University of China
Haiyuan Yang: Ocean University of China

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 148-154

Abstract: Abstract Equatorward alongshore winds over major eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) drive intense upwelling via Ekman dynamics, surfacing nutrient-rich deep waters and promoting marine primary production and fisheries. It is generally thought, dating back to Bakun’s hypothesis, that greenhouse warming should enhance upwelling in EBUSs by intensifying upwelling-favourable winds; yet this has not been tested. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations with improved EBUS representation, we show that long-term upwelling changes in EBUSs differ substantially, under a high-emission scenario, from those inferred by the wind-based upwelling index. Specifically, weakened or unchanged upwelling can coincide with intensified upwelling-favourable winds. These differences are linked to long-term changes of geostrophic flows that dominate upwelling changes in the Canary and Benguela currents and strongly offset wind-driven changes in the California and Humboldt currents. Our results highlight the controlling role of geostrophic flows in upwelling trends in EBUSs under greenhouse warming, which Bakun’s hypothesis overlooked.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01588-y

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