Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies

Leon Merfort (), Nico Bauer, Florian Humpenöder, David Klein, Jessica Strefler, Alexander Popp, Gunnar Luderer and Elmar Kriegler
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Leon Merfort: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
David Klein: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Jessica Strefler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 7, 685-692

Abstract: Abstract Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ−1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2

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