Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change

Pieter Sanczuk (), Karen Pauw, Emiel Lombaerde, Miska Luoto, Camille Meeussen, Sanne Govaert, Thomas Vanneste, Leen Depauw, Jörg Brunet, Sara A. O. Cousins, Cristina Gasperini, Per-Ola Hedwall, Giovanni Iacopetti, Jonathan Lenoir, Jan Plue, Federico Selvi, Fabien Spicher, Jaime Uria-Diez, Kris Verheyen, Pieter Vangansbeke and Pieter Frenne
Additional contact information
Pieter Sanczuk: Ghent University
Karen Pauw: Ghent University
Emiel Lombaerde: Ghent University
Miska Luoto: University of Helsinki
Camille Meeussen: Ghent University
Sanne Govaert: Ghent University
Thomas Vanneste: Ghent University
Leen Depauw: Ghent University
Jörg Brunet: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Sara A. O. Cousins: Stockholm University
Cristina Gasperini: University of Florence
Per-Ola Hedwall: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Giovanni Iacopetti: University of Florence
Jonathan Lenoir: Université de Picardie Jules Verne
Jan Plue: IVL Swedish Environmental Institute
Federico Selvi: University of Florence
Fabien Spicher: Université de Picardie Jules Verne
Jaime Uria-Diez: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Kris Verheyen: Ghent University
Pieter Vangansbeke: Ghent University
Pieter Frenne: Ghent University

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 8, 840-847

Abstract: Abstract Macroclimatic changes are impacting ecosystems worldwide. However, a large portion of terrestrial species live under conditions where impacts of macroclimate change are buffered, such as in the shade of trees, and how this buffering impacts future below-canopy biodiversity redistributions at the continental scale is unknown. Here we show that shady forest floors due to dense tree canopies mitigate severe warming impacts on forest biodiversity, while canopy opening amplifies macroclimate change impacts. A cross-continental transplant experiment in five contrasting biogeographical areas combined with experimental heating and irradiation treatments was used to parametize 25-m resolution mechanistic demographic distribution models and project the current and future distributions of 12 common understorey plant species, considering the effects of forest microclimate and forest cover density. These results highlight microclimates and forest density as powerful tools for forest managers and policymakers to shelter forest biodiversity from climate change.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y

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