Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century

Thomas E. Shaw (), Evan S. Miles, Michael McCarthy, Pascal Buri, Nicolas Guyennon, Franco Salerno, Luca Carturan, Benjamin Brock and Francesca Pellicciotti
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Thomas E. Shaw: Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Evan S. Miles: Swiss Federal Institute WSL
Michael McCarthy: Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Pascal Buri: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Nicolas Guyennon: Water Research Institute (IRSA-CNR)
Franco Salerno: Institute of Polar Sciences (ISP-CNR)
Luca Carturan: University of Padova
Benjamin Brock: Northumbria University
Francesca Pellicciotti: Institute of Science and Technology Austria

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 11, 1212-1218

Abstract: Abstract Recent studies have argued that air temperatures over many mountain glaciers are decoupled from their surroundings, leading to a local cooling which could slow down melting. Here we use a compilation of on-glacier meteorological observations to assess the extent to which this relationship changes under warming. Statistical modelling of the potential temperature decoupling of the world’s mountain glaciers indicates that currently glacier boundary layers warm ~0.83 °C on average for every degree of ambient temperature rise. Future projections under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 indicate that decoupling, and thus relative cooling over glaciers, is maximized during the 2020s and 2030s, before widespread glacier retreat acts to recouple above-glacier air temperatures with its surroundings. This nonlinear feedback will lead to an increased sensitivity to warming from midcentury, with glaciers losing their capacity to affect the local climate and cool themselves.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0

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