The interplay of future emissions and geophysical uncertainties for projections of sea-level rise

Chloe Darnell, Lisa Rennels, Frank Errickson, Tony Wong and Vivek Srikrishnan ()
Additional contact information
Chloe Darnell: Cornell University
Lisa Rennels: Stanford University
Frank Errickson: Independent researcher
Tony Wong: Rochester Institute of Technology
Vivek Srikrishnan: Cornell University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 11, 1205-1211

Abstract: Abstract Uncertainty in future CO2 emissions and the geophysical response to emissions drives variability in future sea-level rise. However, the relative contributions of emissions and geophysical dynamics (for example, Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) tipping points) to future sea-level projections are not well understood. Here we disentangle their relative importance by propagating an ensemble of CO2 emissions trajectories through a calibrated carbon cycle–climate–sea-level model chain. Without negative emissions, the CO2 emissions trajectory, particularly the timing of when emissions are reduced, becomes the primary driver of sea-level variability between 2065 and 2075. Accelerated AIS melting greatly influences the sensitivity of global mean sea-level rise to time-averaged and integrated temperature changes. The most important geophysical uncertainties associated with the risk of exceeding sea-level thresholds are the threshold corresponding to accelerated AIS melting and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Our results highlight the need for both adaptation and rapid decarbonization to manage the risks posed by SLR.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02457-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02457-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02457-0

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().