Anticipating climate impacts on nutrition through climate–crop nutrient modelling

Bianca Carducci (), Jose Rafael Guarin, Kevin Karl, Lewis Ziska, Meijian Yang, Jessica Fanzo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Alex C. Ruane, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Mario Herrero, Erik Mencos Contreras, Natalie Kozlowski and Cynthia Rosenzweig
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Bianca Carducci: Columbia University
Jose Rafael Guarin: Columbia University
Kevin Karl: Columbia University
Lewis Ziska: Columbia University
Meijian Yang: Columbia University
Jessica Fanzo: Columbia University
Jonas Jägermeyr: Columbia University
Alex C. Ruane: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Gerrit Hoogenboom: University of Florida
Mario Herrero: Cornell University
Erik Mencos Contreras: Columbia University
Natalie Kozlowski: Columbia University
Cynthia Rosenzweig: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 11, 1165-1172

Abstract: Abstract Micronutrient deficiencies from poor dietary diversity remain a global health challenge. This issue is exacerbated by climate change-driven extreme weather events that impact crop quantity and quality. While process-based crop models effectively simulate plant nutrient (N, P, K) dynamics for productivity projections, they lack the ability to assess crop nutritional content. This Perspective proposes a framework for integrating nutrient dynamics into crop models for informing nutrition security strategies amid climate change. We delineate key biological pathways influencing nutrient uptake, translocation and density in response to elevated CO2, temperature and low precipitation. We highlight the scarcity of comprehensive datasets, underscoring the need for urgent, collaborative research to amass foundational data and models to ensure nutritional integrity in an uncertain climate.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02470-3

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