Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate

Haiyuan Yang, Haihong Guo, Zhaohui Chen (), Wenju Cai, Lixin Wu, Jinzhuo Cai, Tao Geng, Zhao Jing, Bolan Gan, Xiaohui Ma and Yingying Wang
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Haiyuan Yang: Ocean University of China
Haihong Guo: Ocean University of China
Zhaohui Chen: Ocean University of China
Wenju Cai: Ocean University of China
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China
Jinzhuo Cai: Ocean University of China
Tao Geng: Laoshan Laboratory
Zhao Jing: Ocean University of China
Bolan Gan: Ocean University of China
Xiaohui Ma: Ocean University of China
Yingying Wang: Ocean University of China

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 301-307

Abstract: Abstract Subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs) refer to swift narrow oceanic currents that flow along the western edges of global subtropical ocean basins. Earlier studies indicated that the WBCs are extending poleward under a warming climate. However, owing to limited observations and coarse resolution of climate models, how greenhouse warming may affect the zonal structure of the WBCs remains unknown. Here, using seven high-resolution climate models, we find an onshore intensification of the WBCs in a warming climate. The multimodel ensemble mean of onshore acceleration ranges from 0.10 ± 0.08 to 0.51 ± 0.24 cm s−1 per decade over 1950–2050. Enhanced oceanic stratification associated with fast surface warming induces an uplift of the WBCs, leading to the projected change. The onshore intensification could induce anomalous warming that exacerbates coastal marine heatwaves, reduces ability of the coastal oceans to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide and destabilizes methane hydrate stored below the sea floor of shelf regions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02258-5

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