Dual impact of global urban overheating on mortality

Shasha Wang, Wenfeng Zhan (), Bingbing Zhou, Shilu Tong, Chakraborty Tc, Zhihua Wang, Kangning Huang, Huilin Du, Ariane Middel, Jiufeng Li, Zihan Liu, Long Li, Fan Huang and Manchun Li
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Shasha Wang: Nanjing University
Wenfeng Zhan: Nanjing University
Bingbing Zhou: Ocean University of China
Shilu Tong: National Institute of Environmental Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing
Chakraborty Tc: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Zhihua Wang: Arizona State University
Kangning Huang: New York University Shanghai
Huilin Du: Nanjing University
Ariane Middel: Arizona State University
Jiufeng Li: Nanjing University
Zihan Liu: Anhui University
Long Li: Nanjing University
Fan Huang: Hohai University
Manchun Li: Nanjing University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 5, 497-504

Abstract: Abstract It is known that the urban heat island (UHI) effect could increase mortality in hot seasons, yet its potential health benefits during cold spells are often overlooked. Here we assess the beneficial and detrimental impacts of the UHI effect and associated cooling strategies on temperature-related mortality in more than 3,000 cities worldwide by integrating multi-source datasets. This study finds that the UHI effect reduces global cold-related mortality, surpassing the increase in heat-related mortality more than fourfold. Widely implemented urban cooling strategies, including green and reflective infrastructure, can have an adverse net effect in high-latitude cities but benefit a few tropical cities. We propose seasonal adjustments to roof albedo as an actionable strategy to reduce heat- and cold-related mortality. Our findings highlight that urban heat can protect against mortality in most non-tropical cities in the cold season, emphasizing the importance of seasonally and place-based adaptive UHI mitigation strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02303-3

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