Navigating energy transition solutions for climate targets with minerals constraint

Yi-Ming Wei (), Lan-Cui Liu (), Jia-Ning Kang (), Yunlong Zhang, Song Peng, Hua Liao (), Shuo Xu, Lutao Zhao, Haoben Yan, Xiangyan Qian, Qiao-Mei Liang, Yizhuo Ji, Xiaoxi Tian, Weiming Chen, Jiaquan Li, Hongkun Cui, Min Dai, Xiaoyu Li, Daisong Wang, Fang Yu, Jinhang Qi and Biying Yu ()
Additional contact information
Yi-Ming Wei: Beijing Institute of Technology
Lan-Cui Liu: Beijing Normal University
Jia-Ning Kang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Yunlong Zhang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Song Peng: Beijing Institute of Technology
Shuo Xu: Beijing Institute of Technology
Lutao Zhao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Haoben Yan: Beijing Normal University
Xiangyan Qian: Beijing Institute of Technology
Qiao-Mei Liang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Yizhuo Ji: Beijing Institute of Technology
Xiaoxi Tian: Beijing Institute of Technology
Weiming Chen: Beijing Institute of Technology
Jiaquan Li: Beijing Institute of Technology
Hongkun Cui: Beijing Institute of Technology
Min Dai: Beijing Institute of Technology
Xiaoyu Li: Beijing Institute of Technology
Daisong Wang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Fang Yu: Beijing Institute of Technology
Jinhang Qi: Beijing Institute of Technology
Biying Yu: Beijing Institute of Technology

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 8, 833-841

Abstract: Abstract Urgent decarbonization is imperative, yet mineral scarcity may threaten low-carbon technology deployment, potentially challenging transition pathways. Here, through the analysis of 557 mitigation pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report using the Global Resource Evaluation of Abatement Technologies model, we systematically quantify demand and potential shortages for 40 minerals critical to 17 energy technologies. We find that all pathways may experience global shortages of up to 12 minerals by 2100 under the moderate scenario, with more severe shortages of indium, tin, cadmium and tellurium related to thin-film photovoltaic, wind and nuclear power (>50% of pathways). Regional disparities would intensify these risks, particularly in developing, resource-vulnerable regions (for example, the Middle East and Africa), with potential shortages reaching 24 minerals. Hence, we propose better solutions that balance emissions reduction with resource constraints and regional equity, revealing that decarbonization requires more than technological innovation. It demands the strategic integration of diversified energy technology portfolios, aggressive recycling, material substitution and global trade cooperation, alongside moderate gross domestic product growth.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02373-3

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