Climate policy feasibility across Europe relies on the conditional middle

E. Keith Smith (), Žan Mlakar, Alessio Levis, Mary Sanford, Lea Stapper, Thijs Bouman, Johannes Emmerling, Goda Perlaviciute, Massimo Tavoni, Loïc Berger, Jeroen van den Bergh, Thomas Bernauer, Alessia Casamassima, Thomas Epper, Nahed Eddai, Ivan Savin, Milan Ščasný (), Uyanga Turmunkh, Iva Zverinova and Silvia Pianta
Additional contact information
E. Keith Smith: ETH Zurich
Žan Mlakar: University of Groningen
Alessio Levis: ETH Zurich
Mary Sanford: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation
Lea Stapper: ETH Zurich
Thijs Bouman: University of Groningen
Johannes Emmerling: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation
Goda Perlaviciute: University of Groningen
Massimo Tavoni: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation
Loïc Berger: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation
Jeroen van den Bergh: Autonomous University of Barcelona, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology
Thomas Bernauer: ETH Zurich
Alessia Casamassima: European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
Thomas Epper: UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management
Nahed Eddai: iRisk Research Center on Risk and Uncertainty
Uyanga Turmunkh: iRisk Research Center on Risk and Uncertainty
Silvia Pianta: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) Foundation

Nature Climate Change, 2026, vol. 16, issue 4, 433-440

Abstract: Abstract The feasibility of implementing climate policies relies on citizen support. While recent efforts have focused on shifting the attitudes of policy opponents, little is known about the middle group who neither reflexively endorse nor reject mitigation measures. Here, using a survey of climate policy preferences across 13 EU countries (n = 19,328) in 2024, we identify the ‘conditionals’—a crucial faction of moderates whose support shifts across 15 climate measures— and examine the factors influencing their choices and quantify their electoral impact. Conditionals constitute 33% of Europeans who are active voters for the dominant centrist and centre-right parties. The preferences of conditionals hinge upon specific policy instruments and the perceived cost–benefit balances but less on fixed ideology or demographics. The potential shift of conditionals plays a vital role in shaping overall patterns of public policy support and electoral outcomes. Our findings emphasize the visible benefits of strategic engagement with conditionals for climate policy success.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02562-8

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