Health and climate impacts of ocean-going vessels in East Asia

Huan Liu (), Mingliang Fu, Xinxin Jin, Yi Shang, Drew Shindell (), Greg Faluvegi, Cary Shindell and Kebin He ()
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Huan Liu: State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of the Environment, Tsinghua University
Mingliang Fu: State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of the Environment, Tsinghua University
Xinxin Jin: State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of the Environment, Tsinghua University
Yi Shang: State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of the Environment, Tsinghua University
Drew Shindell: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University
Greg Faluvegi: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Cary Shindell: North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics
Kebin He: State Key Joint Laboratory of ESPC, School of the Environment, Tsinghua University

Nature Climate Change, 2016, vol. 6, issue 11, 1037-1041

Abstract: Abstract East Asia has the most rapidly growing shipping emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants, but the least in-depth analysis. Full evaluation of all pollutants is needed to assess the impacts of shipping emissions. Here, using an advanced method based on detailed dynamic ship activity data, we show that shipping emissions in East Asia accounted for 16% of global shipping CO2 in 2013, compared to only 4–7% in 2002–2005. Increased emissions lead to large adverse health impacts, with 14,500–37,500 premature deaths per year. Global mean radiative forcing from East Asian shipping is initially negative, but would become positive after approximately eight years for constant current emissions. As a large fraction of vessels are registered elsewhere, joint efforts are necessary to reduce emissions and mitigate the climate and health impacts of shipping in the region.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3083

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