Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

Jianbin Huang, Xiangdong Zhang (), Qiyi Zhang, Yanluan Lin, Mingju Hao, Yong Luo (), Zongci Zhao, Yao Yao, Xin Chen, Lei Wang, Suping Nie, Yizhou Yin, Ying Xu and Jiansong Zhang
Additional contact information
Jianbin Huang: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Xiangdong Zhang: International Arctic Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Qiyi Zhang: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Yanluan Lin: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Mingju Hao: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Yong Luo: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Zongci Zhao: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Yao Yao: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Xin Chen: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Lei Wang: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
Suping Nie: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
Yizhou Yin: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
Ying Xu: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
Jiansong Zhang: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University

Nature Climate Change, 2017, vol. 7, issue 12, 875-879

Abstract: Abstract The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1–3. Although various physical processes4–8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area 9 . As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs 2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset 11 through employing the ‘data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions’ method 12 . Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR5 1 , for 1998–2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0009-5

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