Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse

K. K. Holsman (), A. C. Haynie, A. B. Hollowed, J. C. P. Reum, K. Aydin, A. J. Hermann, W. Cheng, A. Faig, J. N. Ianelli, K. A. Kearney and A. E. Punt
Additional contact information
K. K. Holsman: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
A. C. Haynie: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
A. B. Hollowed: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
J. C. P. Reum: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
K. Aydin: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
A. J. Hermann: University of Washington
W. Cheng: University of Washington
A. Faig: University of Washington
J. N. Ianelli: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
K. A. Kearney: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
A. E. Punt: University of Washington

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18300-3 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18300-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().