Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo—Brazil

Osmar Pinto Neto (), Deanna M. Kennedy, José Clark Reis, Yiyu Wang, Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi, Gustavo José Zambrano, Joabe Marcos Souza, Wellington Pedroso, Rodrigo Cunha Mello Pedreiro, Bruno Matos Brizzi, Ellysson Oliveira Abinader and Renato Amaro Zângaro
Additional contact information
Osmar Pinto Neto: Anhembi Morumbi University
Deanna M. Kennedy: Texas A&M University
José Clark Reis: Arena235 Research Lab
Yiyu Wang: Texas A&M University
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi: Anhembi Morumbi University
Gustavo José Zambrano: Arena235 Research Lab
Joabe Marcos Souza: Arena235 Research Lab
Wellington Pedroso: Anhembi Morumbi University
Rodrigo Cunha Mello Pedreiro: Anhembi Morumbi University
Bruno Matos Brizzi: Arena235 Research Lab
Ellysson Oliveira Abinader: Instituto Abinader
Renato Amaro Zângaro: Anhembi Morumbi University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract With COVID-19 surging across the world, understanding the effectiveness of intervention strategies on transmission dynamics is of primary global health importance. Here, we develop and analyze an epidemiological compartmental model using multi-objective genetic algorithm design optimization to compare scenarios related to strategy type, the extent of social distancing, time window, and personal protection levels on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate that the optimal strategy for São Paulo is to reduce social distancing over time with a stepping-down reduction in the magnitude of social distancing every 80-days. Our results also indicate that the ability to reduce social distancing depends on a 5–10% increase in the current percentage of people strictly following protective guidelines, highlighting the importance of protective behavior in controlling the pandemic. Our framework can be extended to model transmission dynamics for other countries, regions, states, cities, and organizations.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-20687-y

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20687-y

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