Community factors and excess mortality in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Bethan Davies, Brandon L. Parkes, James Bennett, Daniela Fecht, Marta Blangiardo, Majid Ezzati and Paul Elliott ()
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Bethan Davies: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
Brandon L. Parkes: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
James Bennett: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
Daniela Fecht: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
Marta Blangiardo: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
Majid Ezzati: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place
Paul Elliott: Imperial College London, Norfolk Place

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Risk factors for increased risk of death from COVID-19 have been identified, but less is known on characteristics that make communities resilient or vulnerable to the mortality impacts of the pandemic. We applied a two-stage Bayesian spatial model to quantify inequalities in excess mortality in people aged 40 years and older at the community level during the first wave of the pandemic in England, March-May 2020 compared with 2015–2019. Here we show that communities with an increased risk of excess mortality had a high density of care homes, and/or high proportion of residents on income support, living in overcrowded homes and/or with a non-white ethnicity. We found no association between population density or air pollution and excess mortality. Effective and timely public health and healthcare measures that target the communities at greatest risk are urgently needed to avoid further widening of inequalities in mortality patterns as the pandemic progresses.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23935-x

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