Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century

Gabriel A. Vecchi (), Christopher Landsea, Wei Zhang, Gabriele Villarini and Thomas Knutson
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Gabriel A. Vecchi: Princeton University
Christopher Landsea: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Wei Zhang: Utah State University
Gabriele Villarini: University of Iowa
Thomas Knutson: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5

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